Goldman Sachs says diesel will likely remain elevated through 2027 as
constrained refining capacity and renewed government and corporate restocking
lift demand. Nikhil Bandari, co-head of Asia-Pacific natural resources research
at Goldman, said prices need to stay high enough to induce some demand
suppression next year to prevent demand from outstripping refining capacity.
Goldman expects global diesel and jet‑fuel crack spreads (product vs. crude) to
average above $40/bbl in 2027 — more than twice normal. Bandari added that any
demand rebound would force refinery run rates to climb to the highest levels
seen in the past 20 years.
