The US trade deficit widened to its highest level since March 2025 in August, potentially dragging down overall economic growth in the short term. However, strong imports also reflect robust US consumer demand and continued growth in business equipment investment, including capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence.
We project US GDP growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, providing a favorable environment for businesses to expand operations and generate profits. This economic resilience will also help the US economy withstand the pressure from the Federal Reserve's moderate tightening monetary policy.
Historical data shows that since 1954, in the 16 Fed rate hike cycles, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of 10.8% in the year following the first rate hike. Current economic conditions still conform to the characteristics of sustained expansion. Therefore, we believe that corporate earnings growth is capable of offsetting some of the valuation pressures caused by rising interest rates.
Considering the above factors, we believe investors should continue to maintain investment allocations that can benefit from rising stock markets. We forecast the S&P 500 will reach 8400 points in June 2027. At the same time, we emphasize the importance of maintaining broad diversification across different industries and regions to reduce portfolio concentration risk. For investors seeking a more defensive allocation, capital preservation strategies can be considered to strengthen downside risk management while participating in potential upward trends.
(The above content is based on UBS's views on October 7th and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice.)
