I. Before the US-Israeli airstrikes: Iran nearing the nuclear threshold, but lacking clear evidence of weaponization
1. Before the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, it was believed that Iran was too close to possessing the capability to produce nuclear weapons. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that there was no credible evidence that Iran had a coordinated and unified nuclear weapons development program.
2. The IAEA estimated that at the time of the first round of bombings, Iran possessed 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to a level of up to 60%. If further enriched, this uranium would be sufficient to make 10 nuclear weapons.
II. After the US-Israeli attacks: Major facilities damaged, some stockpiles and underground facilities still standing
1. The IAEA stated that of Iran's three uranium enrichment plants, the Natanz and Fordow plants were at least severely damaged and rendered inoperable. The Isfahan uranium enrichment plant, located within an underground tunnel network, appeared to be unaffected by the bombings.
2. In March of this year, IAEA Director General Grossi stated that Iran still possessed "slightly more than 200 kilograms" of uranium enriched to 60% or higher in its underground tunnel complex in Isfahan, with some additional enriched uranium remaining in Natanz.
3. The "Gazelle Hill" facility, which Trump had repeatedly threatened to attack, is located near the Natanz nuclear facility and is deeply buried underground. This facility was not attacked. Satellite imagery shows a significant increase in construction activity at Gazelle Hill this year, but there is currently no evidence that the facility has commenced uranium enrichment activities.
4. Other media outlets and related agencies reported this week that satellite imagery shows a recent resurgence of significant activity at the Minzadehei facility, located northeast of Tehran and believed to be linked to nuclear weapons development. This site was attacked by Israel in March of this year.
III. Iran's Current Uranium Enrichment Capacity Remains Unknown
1. How long it will take for Iran to resume uranium enrichment activities remains unknown. As long as it retains a substantial portion of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile, Iran can further enrich it to weapons-grade levels with relatively little investment.
2. Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 caused the IAEA to lose track of the number of Iranian centrifuges and their components. Currently, the number of centrifuges Iran possesses and their locations are unknown.
IV. US Demands: Substantial Reduction of Uranium Enrichment Capacity
1. US Vice President Vance stated this week that substantial reductions in Iran's uranium enrichment capacity are a prerequisite for meeting US demands and ending the war.
2. Reductions in uranium enrichment capacity could include several aspects: lowering the current enrichment level of uranium, reducing stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and future production, reducing the number of uranium enrichment facilities, or limiting centrifuges and related equipment.
