JPMorgan data shows that since October, retail investor flows in US stocks have rebounded from their September lows, recovering to the average level of the past 12 months, with the latest combined daily trading activity for individual stocks and ETFs reaching approximately $1.5 billion. The improvement in flows was primarily driven by ETFs, which rose to the 32nd percentile historically, while individual stock flows were only at the 43rd percentile, with frequent shifts in buying and selling directions, reflecting that retail investors prefer to participate in the market through index products, and their willingness to increase their holdings in individual stocks remains unstable. Despite the S&P 500 reaching new highs and the US economy maintaining resilience, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and oil price volatility continue to suppress risk appetite. With the end of the seasonal funding trough and the approach of the third-quarter earnings season, there are conditions for further retail investor inflows, but currently both components are below historical medians, indicating that the market is still in a cautious recovery phase, and widespread and sustained chasing of rising stocks has not yet occurred.
