US Dollar:
1. US initial jobless claims fell to 197,000, indicating a stable labor market.
2. US August wholesale inventory growth was revised down to 0.5%, while sales growth of 1.8% showed strong demand.
3. The Director of the Congressional Budget Office stated that the growth forecast required for debt stability assumes interest rates of 4% to 5%; there is a 6% "structural" fiscal deficit; and the impact of debt issues on yields is considered relatively small.
4. Federal Reserve – Warsh will attend and speak at the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok at 11:30 AM Beijing time on October 16; Waller: Further rate hikes are still needed, but not necessarily consecutively; Musalaim: Further rate hikes may be needed in the next 6 to 9 months.
5. US Treasuries – Danske Bank: The dollar remains strong, and US Treasury yields may move towards 6%; PIMCO: The 10-year US Treasury yield faces the risk of hitting 6% for the first time in 26 years.
Euro:
1. French debt risk is already higher than the 38% of French corporate bonds.
2. ECB Governing Council member Mollen: Inflation is clearly 100% driven by energy, with no second-round effect observed.
3. ECB Governing Council member Dorenz: Persistently high inflation supports the view of adjusting policy rates to a more restrictive level.
4. ECB meeting minutes: Policymakers avoided providing guidance due to uncertainty and inflation risks.
5. ECB Stournaras: Inflation expectations remain stable near the target, and monetary policy should remain dovish.
6. ECB Lane: Energy price shocks remain manageable, and monetary policy should be "prudently addressed."
Pound Sterling:
1. Bank of England Governor: Multiple shocks are eroding fiscal space, and the government may be unable to cope with the next economic recession.
2. The yield on 20-year UK government bonds reached 6% for the first time since March 1998, rising 7 basis points intraday.
Yen Yen:
1. Bank of Japan branch governor expects price pressures to spread to the consumer sector.
2. Japan restarts "DOGE-style" fiscal review to find funding for high-spending policies.
3. Sanae Takaichi defends tax cuts: It's a proactive and responsible fiscal policy that helps maintain the yen.
Others:
1. Bank of Thailand Governor: No rush to raise interest rates.
2. Swedish Central Bank Governor Töden: There are strong reasons to raise policy rates in the near term.
3. The rupee's decline is nearing historic lows, testing the Reserve Bank of India's multiple defenses.
4. Polish Central Bank Governor: There is a possibility of a rate hike in November by the Monetary Policy Committee, but we do not expect to do so; Polish central bank officials: A 25 basis point rate hike may be needed in November.
5. Swiss National Bank Vice President: The Swiss franc has depreciated in recent months, but has remained stable in real value since 2020.
6. Poll: The son of former Brazilian President Bolsonaro won 49% of the vote in the election runoff, while Brazilian President Lula won 45%.
7. The Philippines will adopt international bond pricing methods to attract investors.
8. National Bank of Kazakhstan: Net gold and foreign exchange reserves in September were $64.287 billion, down 5.7% month-on-month.
