According to a Bloomberg report on October 9, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are posing a new threat to Red Sea shipping. The two countries severed diplomatic relations on October 1, and on October 7, Eritrean troops were sighted entering the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia. The conflict monitoring agency ACLED reported that Ethiopian government forces subsequently launched drone attacks on Eritrean military vehicles. Some Eritrean troops reportedly withdrew northward, but whether they have completely withdrawn remains unclear, increasing the risk of a full-scale war between the two countries.
A key source of the dispute is access to the Red Sea. Ethiopia, a landlocked country since 1993, is heavily reliant on the port of Djibouti, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently reiterated the strategic necessity of acquiring this port. Eritrea, on the other hand, is concerned that Ethiopia is attempting to seize its southern port of Assab. If the conflict spreads from Tigray to the Red Sea coast, it could threaten port facilities and nearby shipping routes, driving up war risk insurance premiums, freight rates, and detour costs for ships.
Red Sea shipping has already been affected by Houthi activities in Yemen, and the security situation around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains tense. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has also been disrupted by the US-Iran conflict. Eritrea possesses approximately 1,000 kilometers of Red Sea coastline; if a war breaks out between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the Red Sea could face military risks on both its eastern and western shores simultaneously, further diminishing the attractiveness of the Suez Canal route. Egypt, Sudan, and Somalia are also converging on the same stance as Eritrea regarding the protection of the sovereignty of Red Sea littoral states, increasing the complexity of a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
