According to Al Jazeera analysis, as the US midterm elections approach, Trump and Republicans are increasingly worried that the ongoing war with Iran could trigger a voter backlash. A Pew Research Center survey released Thursday showed that 65% of American adults disapprove of Trump's overall handling of the war with Iran. The Pew survey further showed that 47% of Americans believe the war will last more than a year, and another 30% expect it to last six months to a year. The survey indicates that public concern about a protracted war is deepening, and Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are increasingly negatively evaluating the war.
Analysts believe that postponing a new round of military strikes against Iran until after the midterm elections may help Republicans alleviate political pressure from voter dissatisfaction with the war. However, the impact of the election results on Trump's subsequent military decisions remains divided. If the Republicans perform well, Trump may see it as a signal of public approval for another strike against Iran; even if the Republicans lose, Trump may feel that he has little political leverage left and is more inclined to take military action. Although further escalation of the war could continue to damage Trump's approval ratings, he is ineligible to run for the next presidential election under the US Constitution. Therefore, analysts worry that the midterm elections will not only affect the political prospects of the Republican Party, but may also be an important factor influencing the timing of the next phase of US military action against Iran.
