Challenger chief economist Jonathan Karns said the RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA's chance of a November rate increase is roughly 50/50. Employment data due Thursday and Q3 inflation due Oct. 30 will inform the decision. He said policy risks remain skewed

2026-10-12

Challenger chief economist Jonathan Karns said the RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA's chance of a November rate increase is roughly 50/50. Employment data due Thursday and Q3 inflation due Oct. 30 will inform the decision. He said policy risks remain skewed toward tightening and the RBA cannot tolerate another uptick in inflation. If Q3 trimmed-mean inflation reaches 0.9%—above the prior two quarters' 0.8%—that would prompt a rate rise, he added, and failure to act would cast doubt on the bank's commitment to its inflation target.