1. Fear of the Situation Escalating Out of Control and Backlash
Despite Saudi Arabia's intensified military operations, it remains difficult to reverse the Houthi advance around Taiz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. While Iran welcomes the Houthis' pressure on Saudi Arabia and the resulting increase in oil prices, it also fears the conflict spiraling out of control. The Houthis are not Iran's puppets; they possess independent political ambitions and military decision-making power. If the Houthis corner Saudi Arabia and trigger larger-scale intervention from the US or Israel, Iran may be forced into a full-scale war it does not want to fight.
2. Transforming Yemen from a Military Burden into a Diplomatic Asset
Iran is attempting to transform Yemen from a military burden into a diplomatic asset. Iran has long been accused of being the Houthis' backer, a detrimental label in diplomacy. By promoting dialogue between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, Iran is trying to repackage itself as "part of the problem" and "part of the solution," strengthening its diplomatic standing.
3. Seeking to Negotiate Regional Conflicts as a Package
This is one of Iran's broader efforts to link regional conflicts together. The larger goal is to reach an informal non-aggression agreement between Iran and its allies and the US and its regional partners. This requires ending hostilities on multiple fronts, including Yemen and Lebanon, rather than being limited to the US-Iran conflict. Iran's core message is that regional security is indivisible, and Saudi Arabia cannot enjoy security alone while Iran and its allies remain under military and economic pressure.
4. Capitalizing on Saudi Arabia's "Dependency Dilemma"
Saudi Arabia is increasingly uneasy about its dependence on the US, disappointed by the limited US willingness to intervene in Yemen, and unwilling to rely on the UAE again. Iran sees an opportunity to demonstrate that engagement with Saudi Arabia can offer something that traditional security partnerships cannot provide.
5. Economic Calculations: Using Yemen as Bargaining Chips
Iran is under immense pressure from the US blockade, while Gulf states, despite Iranian interference, are gradually resuming energy exports. Offering Saudi Arabia an exit from Yemen could bring Iran influence far beyond the battlefield, especially in negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and a broader regional security architecture.
