The IMF said a “doomsday” scenario would leave more global banks closer to the
edge than a year ago. Its latest stress test models an AI-driven asset collapse,
a sharp rise in government bond yields and an economic slowdown, and warns that
AI-related shocks could threaten banks even amid rising profits. Under the
scenario 22% of global banking assets would be concentrated in 110 “weak” banks
whose core capital ratios would fall below 7%—or below the higher thresholds
applied to globally systemically important banks—versus 18% of assets in 88 weak
banks in last year’s test. IMF official Vamvakidis said each annual scenario
reflects risks judged relevant at the time and uses the same methodology; this
year energy-supply disruptions, worries of an AI bubble and higher yields have
amplified global risks.
