According to OpenRouter data estimates, the average price of tokens, weighted by model usage, has decreased by approximately 66% over the past year, from about $3 to $1 per million tokens. JPMorgan's macro equity research team estimates that AI-related annualized revenue run rate is expected to exceed $300 billion by the end of 2026, more than three times that of the end of 2025. This price decline reflects changes in user choices; this summer, some companies reached their annual token budgets ahead of schedule and began allocating models based on task difficulty, increasing the use of cheaper models. JPMorgan believes that improvements in hardware and software efficiency are also reducing token generation costs, while intelligent agents and cybersecurity applications may continue to expand their usage demand. Whether revenue can continue to grow depends on whether usage volume can offset the price reduction. JPMorgan's 2027 scenario is: an average price decrease of another 70%, and if token consumption increases tenfold, revenue run rate could still increase to approximately three times.
