Citigroup projects the UAE economy will contract 0.2% in 2026 after 6.2% growth in 2025. Non-oil output is forecast to decline 0.8% in 2026, reversing 2025’s 6.8% gain, while oil-sector growth slows to 1.7% from 4.3% in 2025. Citigroup says the UAE i

2026-10-13

Citigroup projects the UAE economy will contract 0.2% in 2026 after 6.2% growth in 2025. Non-oil output is forecast to decline 0.8% in 2026, reversing 2025’s 6.8% gain, while oil-sector growth slows to 1.7% from 4.3% in 2025. Citigroup says the UAE is the Gulf economy most exposed to the Middle East conflict, via trade, tourism, imports and domestic-demand channels. Strong fiscal and external buffers leave the government with scope to respond if shocks persist.