ASML will release its financial report on October 14th, and the focus has shifted from quarterly orders to capacity expansion capabilities. The company no longer publishes quarterly order data because order volumes can fluctuate significantly between quarters; therefore, capacity targets and delivery prospects are more important indicators of market demand.
ASML expects to produce approximately 65 low numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines in 2026 and plans to increase capacity by 30% to approximately 85 machines in 2027. The company is also exploring a further 30% increase in capacity in 2028, potentially reaching approximately 110 machines per year.
These systems, each costing approximately €200 million, are crucial for manufacturing advanced semiconductors. Their delivery cycle exceeds one year, meaning that today's expansion decisions reflect demand expectations for a long period ahead.
The upward revision of the EUV capacity target strongly indicates market confidence in the AI investment cycle. However, investors should also pay attention to execution risks, particularly ASML's ability to shorten manufacturing cycles and scale up production without impacting profit margins.
