Fifth Third Bank chief U.S. economist Bill Adams expects U.S. CPI to
reaccelerate in September as a rebound in gasoline pushes headline inflation
higher. Higher fuel costs could also lift airfare, a core-CPI component; other
core CPI categories are expected to be relatively muted. Dealer discounting to
clear stock may put slight downward pressure on new and used vehicle prices,
while most other durable-goods prices should see little change. Housing
inflation may slow again, reflecting lagged pass-through from modest house-price
and rent gains last year and early this year. PPI is likely to outpace CPI
because diesel rose more than gasoline and has greater pass-through to producer
costs; transportation and warehousing costs may jump, lifting core PPI.
Medical-care services inflation may be relatively muted due to residual
seasonality.
