Markets broadly expect US headline CPI to rise notably in September while core
CPI ex food and energy is forecast to slow MoM, reducing urgency for a Fed hike
in October. The Fed raised rates last month and signaled further increases, but
weak September jobs and July–August PCE prints below expectations have sharply
cooled odds of an October move. Scott Anderson, BMO Capital Markets' chief US
economist, says a September core CPI MoM print around 0.2% would be sufficient
to support a Fed pause in October, but he warned the debate over whether
additional hikes will be needed is not over.
