According to the definition of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an El Niño event is defined as a sustained sea surface temperature (SST) above average of 0.5°C for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods within the Niño 3.4 region. A strong El Niño typically corresponds to a temperature anomaly of 1.5°C or higher, while an anomaly of 2.0°C or higher is defined as a very strong El Niño, informally referred to as a "super El Niño."
According to the latest outlook, real-time weekly ocean observation data shows that El Niño has entered the range of a very strong, or "super," El Niño, and is expected to continue strengthening until the end of the year. NOAA believes there is an over 83% probability that this event will remain a strong to very strong El Niño during January to March 2027. NOAA also estimates that there is a maximum 83% probability that this event will become a historic event during October to December, meaning its intensity will exceed that of any El Niño event recorded since 1950.
