Morgan Stanley's Asia economics research team points out that as of the second quarter of 2026, Asia's current account surplus has risen to approximately US$1.6 trillion over the past four quarters, accounting for 4.2% of GDP, the highest percentage since 2008. The team believes that export revenue, financing, and a healthier private sector balance sheet give Asia a stronger foundation to cope with high US interest rates than in previous cycles.
This round of US technology capital spending is driving demand for electronics, capital goods, and related supply chains in Asia, while Asia's own investment in AI, energy, defense, and industry is also expanding. Meanwhile, Asia's private debt-to-GDP ratio, excluding China and Japan, is expected to decrease from approximately 115% at the end of 2019 to approximately 111% by June 2026. Morgan Stanley notes that corporate capital spending relies more heavily on local bank financing, with relatively limited reliance on external financing.
