“AI providers are projected to invest nearly $1 trillion in AI infrastructure by 2026, with another $6 trillion expected between 2027 and 2030,” said Will Sommer, senior director and analyst at Gartner. “However, our research indicates that during this period, enterprise and consumer AI revenue will not be sufficient to justify all planned AI capital expenditures. By 2030, AI data center owners will need to generate a cumulative $8.5 trillion in revenue to cover published capital expenditures, financing costs, and a 12% return on invested capital (ROIC), which we assume is the minimum return on invested capital,” Sommer stated. “However, during this period, total enterprise and consumer AI revenue is projected to reach a maximum of only $3.6 trillion, and this revenue will primarily come from AI data centers. Given that most AI-native providers operate on a light-asset business model, we predict that providers with substantial AI infrastructure will not capture half of their AI revenue.”
