TSMC's previously released monthly revenue data showed that Q3 cumulative revenue was approximately NT$1.494 trillion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 51%. The company will release its full Q3 financial report and hold an investor conference today, with market focus shifting to net profit, gross margin, earnings guidance, and future capital expenditure outlook.
Institutional Outlook:
1. Morgan Stanley: Q3 earnings are expected to significantly exceed market expectations, with EPS reaching NT$30.74, higher than the market consensus; gross margin is expected to reach 67.5%. Revenue is projected to grow by 46.7% year-on-year in 2026, and advanced process wafer prices are expected to rise by 5% to 10% in 2027, pushing gross margin close to 70%.
2. Goldman Sachs: Gross margins are projected to be 67.5% and 67.3% for Q3 and Q4, respectively. USD revenue is projected to grow by 42% year-on-year in 2026 and 36.9% in 2027, with capital expenditure potentially reaching US$85 billion next year.
3. Citigroup: Q3 results are expected to exceed the company's previous guidance, prompting upward revisions to market consensus forecasts. 4. JPMorgan Chase: Q3 gross margin is expected to be 66.8%, with Q4 revenue growing 11% quarter-over-quarter. AI chip demand is expected to continue growing until 2028, at which point TSMC's overall revenue is still expected to achieve approximately 30% year-over-year growth.
5. Bank of America: Q3 and Q4 gross margins are expected to be 67% and 67.8% respectively; Q4 revenue is expected to grow 10% to 15% quarter-over-quarter. Capital expenditure is expected to be $63 billion in 2026 and increase to $83 billion in 2027. The average selling price of advanced processes may increase by 5% to 10% in Q1 2027.
6. Macquarie: Q3 gross margin is expected to reach 67%, and the pressure on gross margin dilution from the 2nm process starting in Q4 will be reduced. 7. Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting: Q3 gross margin is projected at 67.3%; Q4 revenue is expected to grow 12.5% quarter-over-quarter, with gross margin rising to 68.1%. Gross margins are projected to reach 69% and 71% in 2027 and 2028 respectively; capital expenditure in 2027 is projected to be approximately US$80 billion.
8. UBS: 2027 revenue growth is projected at approximately 40%, with capital expenditure reaching US$90 billion, significantly higher than the market consensus of approximately US$75 billion.
9. Fubon Securities Investment Consulting: Q4 revenue is projected to grow 10% to 12% quarter-over-quarter, with gross margin remaining largely flat; full-year revenue growth is projected at 45% to 46% year-over-year, with gross margin expected to reach 67.4%.
TSMC Official Guidance:
1. Revenue: Q3 is projected to be US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion, with a median of US$45.2 billion, representing a quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 12% and a year-over-year increase of approximately 37%. Consolidated revenue in US dollars is projected to grow slightly above 40% year-over-year in 2026. (Exchange rate assumption: 1 USD = 32 NTD)
2. Gross Margin: Q3 is projected to be 65%-67%, with a median of 66%. Management expects the rapid expansion of 2nm process capacity in Q3 to dilute the gross margin by approximately 3 to 4 percentage points.
3. Operating Profit Margin: Q3 is projected to be 56%-58%, with a median of 57%, lower than the actual 60.3% in Q2.
4. Capital Expenditure: Capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be US$60 billion-64 billion, an upward revision of US$8 billion from the previous forecast range; 2027 capital expenditure guidance has not yet been officially released.
