US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing new orders index, October 4.3; prior 29.2.

ONS data show UK annual GDP grew 2.1% YoY, the strongest reading since October 2022.

Domestic News: 1. Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the 140th China Import and Export Fair in Guangzhou on the afternoon of October 14 and delivered a keynote speech. 2. my country's goods trade imports and exports exceeded 5 trillion yuan for the first time in September, an increase of 27.5%. 3. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced it will conduct 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations. 4. The PBOC reported that at the end of September, M2 balance was 359.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%; total social financing was 468.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. International News: 1. Vietnam has submitted the final text of a trade agreement to the United States. 2. Philippine officials confirmed that Trump will attend the ASEAN summit in November. 3. The United States plans to charge Spanish ships docking and restrict olive oil imports. 4. Anthropic reported that its third-quarter revenue rose to $16.8 billion and it achieved profitability. 5. Ukraine claims that Starlink services are restricted, with Musk and the US government passing the buck. 6. Executives at BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine in Chile approved a collective bargaining agreement, averting a strike. 7. IEA Monthly Report: Global oil supply will decline by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2026. Global diesel supply shortages will continue into next year. 8. US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 3.6%; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, below the expected 2.5%. 9. Overnight Market Update—The probability of a Fed rate hike in October rose to 33%, spot gold fell as much as 2%, silver plunged over 6%, US Treasury yields surged but then completely erased gains, and the Nasdaq closed down 1.8%. 10. Federal Reserve – Goolsby: September inflation was disappointing, but more data is needed before raising rates; Beige Book: High oil prices impacted 12 districts across the US, businesses expect further price increases; Bowman: Inflation remains above our target, and we do not currently believe the Fed needs to rush into further rate adjustments; Daly: Further rate hikes may be necessary, but not imminent; Trump: The terrible Fed deliberately kept rates too high. 11. Middle East Situation – ① The Yemeni government sought intelligence and training support from the US and is not considering negotiations with the Houthis. ② On October 6, the US military destroyed a vessel linked to Iran in the Gulf of Oman; the vessel was monitoring US ships at the time. ③ The Iranian parliament speaker discussed the strategy towards the US: We must fight while negotiating, but this does not mean endless negotiations or war, but rather forcing the US to accept our demands. ④ The Houthis claimed to have shot down a Saudi Typhoon fighter jet.