Commodity analyst Jack Prandelli, citing Bloomberg data, pointed out on October 15th (Beijing time) that despite Iran's continued attacks on oil tankers, the Oman-Dubai crude oil spread, which reflects the tightness of Gulf oil supply, has narrowed significantly. This spread measures the premium of Omani crude oil loaded outside the Strait of Hormuz relative to Dubai crude oil. It rose to $63 per barrel in March when the strait was closed, reached $33 after the attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline in September, and has now fallen to about $7. Prandelli believes the market is gradually adapting to wartime transportation disruptions. Saudi Arabia has resumed exporting crude oil to the Red Sea via the East-West pipeline, and tankers are still shuttling through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, China's crude oil imports in September decreased by 21.5% year-on-year, further easing supply pressure. However, some very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have recently turned around near Fujairah. If this phenomenon expands, the spread may rise sharply again.
