1. January 27: MSCI Takes First Restrictive Measures
① MSCI released the results of its consultation on the assessment of free float in Indonesian securities, pointing out two major problems in the Indonesian stock market: opaque shareholding structure and suspected coordinated transactions.
② MSCI announced a freeze on some index adjustments, including suspending the increase of the Foreign Investor Inclusion Factor (FIF) for Indonesian stocks and the number of shares used in index calculations, suspending the addition of new Indonesian stocks to relevant indices, and prohibiting Indonesian stocks from being promoted from small-cap indices to standard indices.
③ MSCI warned that if Indonesia fails to make sufficient progress in rectification by May, it may reduce its weighting in emerging market indices, and even consider downgrading it to a border market.
2. Late January to February: Three Departments Launch Rectification
① On January 29, the Indonesian Financial Services Authority issued a statement promising to strengthen equity information disclosure, market transparency, and corporate governance.
② On February 2, Indonesian regulators held consultations with MSCI, proposing three reform measures: refining investor classification, disclosing information on shareholders holding more than 1% of shares, and raising the minimum free float ratio from 7.5% to 15%.
③ On February 9th, the Indonesian Financial Services Authority, the Indonesian Stock Exchange, and the Central Securities Depository jointly announced a reform plan and established a working group to promote its implementation.
3. April 2nd: Indonesia announces completion of four market reforms.
The three departments announced the completion of the institutional framework for four reforms, including strengthening shareholder information disclosure, introducing a regulatory framework for high shareholding concentration, refining investor classification, and raising the minimum free float requirement to 15%. Some measures still have transition periods.
4. Late April to May: MSCI maintains restrictions and begins removing Indonesian stocks from its index.
① On April 20th, MSCI confirmed that Indonesia had announced several reforms, but believed that their actual effectiveness still needed to be assessed. Therefore, it continued to restrict the inclusion of Indonesian stocks in its indices and the increase in their weighting.
② On May 12th, MSCI announced the removal of 6 Indonesian stocks from its global standard indices, and another 13 were removed from its small-cap index. The adjustments took effect after the market closed on May 29th.
5. June 23: MSCI Retains Indonesia's Emerging Market Status, But Issues Further Downgrade Warning
MSCI decided to temporarily retain Indonesia's emerging market status, but stated that international institutional investors remain concerned about insufficient equity transparency and suspected coordinated transactions. MSCI warned that if there are no sufficient improvements before the November index review, it will consider initiating a formal consultation to downgrade Indonesia to a border market.
6. July-August: MSCI Maintains Restrictions and Removes Constituent Stocks
On July 6, MSCI announced that it would continue to implement restrictions in the August index review. On August 12, MSCI announced the removal of GoTo Gojek Tokopedia and Charoen Pokphand Indonesia from the Global Standard Indexes, and nine other stocks were removed from the Small Cap Index. The adjustments took effect after the market closed on August 31.
7. October 15: MSCI Proposes a More Strict Downgrade Plan
①MSCI initiates a formal consultation, proposing to downgrade Indonesia directly from an emerging market to an independent market. MSCI noted that Indonesia's reforms have not yet fully demonstrated their sustained effectiveness across the market, with issues such as inadequate coordination of transactions and insufficient enforcement remaining. Market participants believe that simply downgrading it to a border market is insufficient to reflect the severity of the problems.
② On October 16, the Indonesian stock market opened with a rapid 8% drop, triggering a circuit breaker. The decline subsequently exceeded 11% at one point, potentially marking the largest single-day drop since January 1998.
