Guojin Securities says the worst phase for China A‑shares has likely passed.
AI-driven investment initially pushed up interest rates and global cost of
capital, but capex is concentrating in US tech; current cracks in US tech
investment should support a period of downward pressure on real rates. The
market lacks a V‑shaped base, but systemic risk is ebbing and selective non‑AI
exposures are becoming tradable. Recommendations: gold — attractive as AI slows
and fundamentals diverge, easing real‑rate pressure; energy/chemicals chain —
coal, oil and tanker shipping to benefit from global inventory restocking and
offering dividend‑like returns; export sectors — exports are no longer
AI‑exclusive, and if rates continue to fall, white goods, textiles
manufacturing, commercial vehicles and home furnishings could see a recovery and
also present dividend attributes.
