China's National Bureau of Statistics released Q3 data on Oct 19. Wu Ge, chief
Economist at Changjiang Securities, said GDP rose 4.6% YoY in the first three
quarters and exports were the largest contributor among the three growth
engines. Looking 1–2 years ahead, he said geopolitical uncertainty persists but
the global macro backdrop remains broadly supportive of Chinese manufacturing
exports, especially AI-related goods. He noted AI has been a significant export
driver this year by lifting demand for compute capacity and infrastructure
investment, and that ongoing global supply‑chain reconfiguration is increasing
spending in those areas—supporting external demand. Over a longer cycle, he
added, the global manufacturing upcycle has not yet ended and the external
The favorable environment to Chinese manufacturing exports has not changed.
