Canada CPI rose 3.1% YoY in September, up from 3.0% in August and just below the
3.2% analyst forecast. The increase was driven by energy, which surged 19% YoY
(August 15.4%), with gasoline up 27.8% YoY. September CPI is the last inflation
print before the BOC’s Oct. 28 policy decision; markets expect the BOC to hold
the policy rate at 2.25% on Oct. 28 but price a 25bps hike in December. The
reading is the first in three months to breach the BOC’s upper bound.
