Although Russia has not directly participated in the war to date, several analysts believe that Moscow has been providing limited but substantial support to Tehran:
1. Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated that while Russia has not provided Iran with heavy weapons, and the deal for Su-35 fighter jets has been delayed, Moscow has still provided military intelligence to help Iran conduct more precise strikes against US bases. It has also assisted in improving Iranian-made weapons systems, including the Shahed drone, through ongoing military-technical cooperation. The key depends on how "support" is defined; Russian aid has been present and has already had a real impact.
2. Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine of the Center for a New American Security also believe that Russian support for Iran is "significant at the operational level, but its boundaries are quite clearly controlled." Even while deeply embroiled in the Ukraine war, Moscow continues to help Iran sustain its operations through intelligence, diplomatic cover, and material support, while trying to avoid actions that could directly drag Russia into a conflict with the United States. 3. German analyst Amir Chahaki believes that Iran itself could also become a bargaining chip in Putin's negotiations with Trump. If Moscow can push Tehran closer to Trump's demands, Putin could use this to gain more concessions from the United States on the Ukraine issue.
