US Dollar:
1. ADP Weekly Employment Report: In the four weeks ending October 3, 2026, private sector employers added an average of 18,500 jobs per week.
2. A Reuters poll shows that 94 out of 100 economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25% by the end of 2026 (compared to 29 out of 76 in September). All 100 economists expect the Fed to raise rates in December 2026.
3. US Treasury Secretary Bessant: The US bond market is performing well; no spillover effects from the situation in France have been seen; we need to get rid of debt through growth; we are gradually emerging from the shadow of the energy shock.
Pound Sterling:
1. UK Office for National Statistics: The latest quarterly data shows a slight increase in employment and a slight decrease in unemployment.
2. UK traders expect UK government bond issuance to increase by £3.4 billion due to narrowing fiscal space.
3. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: There is concern that the current policy stance is not restrictive enough.
Euro:
1. Data from the German Federal Statistical Office shows that, affected by the Middle East conflict, German petroleum product prices rose by more than 50% year-on-year in September.
2. European Central Bank: Foreign exchange reserves decreased by €100 million to €349.5 billion.
3. Lane: Wider global use of the euro may help the ECB control inflation.
Yen:
1. Japanese investors made net purchases of ¥18.8 trillion in government bonds in the first half of the year, the highest since 2009.
2. Sources: The Bank of Japan may raise its inflation forecast but will keep interest rates unchanged.
3. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino: Underlying inflation is expected to approach a level consistent with the Bank of Japan's target.
4. Former Bank of Japan Executive Director Eiji Maeda stated that the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates every three months to control the risk of inflation deviating from its price stability target.
Korean Won:
1. South Korean Ministry of Finance: If necessary, it will consider further reducing the scale of bond issuance.
2. South Korea's exports surged 105.4% year-on-year in the first 20 days of October, with the AI boom driving semiconductor shipments.
Other:
1. Romanian Central Bank meeting minutes: Given global risk aversion, Romania's twin deficits, and domestic political factors, exchange rate risks remain high.
2. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser stated that tightening policies are suppressing the economy, but the inflation outlook is deteriorating.
3. Goldman Sachs: Expects the RBA to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November to 4.85%.
