Britain is expected to rely more on gas imports this winter. Despite a recent
rise in domestic supply, global market tightness leaves the UK exposed to price
spikes. The national gas transmission operator said North Sea output is forecast
to fall about 5% in the current heating season; North Sea supplies account for
roughly one-third of UK winter gas demand. LNG imports are expected to rise
about 5% to cover the shortfall, while Norwegian pipeline flows are forecast to
increase about 1%. The operator said even under extreme stress scenarios the UK
would have "adequate gas supply capacity", but warned that "strong European LNG
demand could intensify competition for cargoes and push up prices." UK gas
futures have nearly tripled year-to-date, trading at the highest levels since
2022.
