Nomura Securities points out that the drivers of global aluminum demand are shifting from traditional construction and industrial cycles to new areas such as data centers, power grids, and new energy.
Specifically, aluminum demand related to data centers and AI is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15% from 2026 to 2030, significantly higher than the 6% growth rate of power grid-related demand, the 1% growth rate of transportation (excluding electric vehicles), and also far exceeding the overall global aluminum demand growth rate of approximately 2%.
Nomura believes that AI does not directly consume large quantities of aluminum, but rather generates indirect demand through data center campus construction, power transmission and distribution network expansion, cooling systems, backup power supplies, and structural components. The report projects that global data center workload capacity will increase from 82GW in 2025 to 220GW in 2030, with AI workload capacity increasing from 44GW to 156GW. This means that the sources of aluminum demand are becoming more diversified, and the industry's reliance on a single traditional real estate and construction cycle is decreasing.
Nomura judges that the changes in the structure of new demand will enhance the resilience of aluminum consumption.
If investments in AI infrastructure, power grid upgrades, and renewable energy proceed as expected, the quality of aluminum demand growth will be better than in the past when it relied solely on traditional industrial expansion, providing longer-term fundamental support for aluminum prices.
