1. Sending a strong public signal while preserving room for negotiation
Trump may not immediately offer a strong public congratulations to Lula on his re-election, but instead emphasize fair trade, US interests, and Brazil's policy choices. However, after meeting with Lula in Malaysia on October 25, Trump expressed his hope for a good agreement, and Lula stated that both sides would immediately move forward with negotiations on tariffs and sanctions.
Therefore, continued contact is not without basis.
2. Using tariffs as a major bargaining chip
The US has already imposed tariffs on some Brazilian goods, and the two sides have ongoing disputes over trade policy. Trump may demand concessions from Brazil on issues such as market access, key minerals, and trade rules before considering adjusting tariffs. However, there is a reverse constraint: the US needs to consider the impact of Brazilian goods on the US market and consumers, especially food prices. The US has previously adjusted some tariffs on Brazilian agricultural products.
3. Continuing to exert pressure on diplomatic and security issues
The two countries have differences on issues such as security in Latin America, combating crime, and Brazilian judicial affairs. Trump may continue to demand that Brazil cooperate with US regional security policies; Lula, on the other hand, tends to emphasize national sovereignty and multilateral cooperation. Such disagreements may cause fluctuations in diplomatic relations, but do not necessarily lead to full-blown confrontation.
4. Increase efforts to secure key Brazilian mineral resources. Brazil possesses significant mineral resources. The Trump administration may include mineral development, investment access, and supply chain cooperation in bilateral negotiations. This provides potential bargaining opportunities for both sides: the US seeks supply chain security, while Brazil hopes to gain investment and market access.
