The BOJ is expected to keep the policy rate at 1.25% at the October meeting, but
Governor UEDA said rates will still need to rise toward neutral, though
consecutive hikes are not required. MaceNews judges the most likely path is a
rise to 1.50% in Dec or Jan, followed by 1.75% in Mar or Apr — implying a
roughly 3–4 month cadence. The board is split into four camps; hawks Takata and
Tamura may push for the next hike as early as Friday to lay groundwork for a
December move, while Asada and Sato recently voted against further tightening.
Tokyo October CPI core indicators are forecast around 2.7–2.8%, partly
reflecting fading local fiscal support; September employment, industrial
production and retail sales data are also due.
