ITC senior FX analyst Sean Carlow said Lula's unexpected victory in Brazil's
presidential election — despite recent polls implying an ~80% chance for
Bolsonaro — is a major surprise and could reverse prior market moves. Brazilian
assets that rallied after the first-round result on bets of pro-market policies
may unwind; USD/BRL could gap about 5% higher, mirroring the roughly 5% gap
lower after the first round.