ITC senior FX analyst Sean Carlow said Lula's unexpected victory in Brazil's presidential election — despite recent polls implying an ~80% chance for Bolsonaro — is a major surprise and could reverse prior market moves. Brazilian assets that rallied

2026-10-26

ITC senior FX analyst Sean Carlow said Lula's unexpected victory in Brazil's presidential election — despite recent polls implying an ~80% chance for Bolsonaro — is a major surprise and could reverse prior market moves. Brazilian assets that rallied after the first-round result on bets of pro-market policies may unwind; USD/BRL could gap about 5% higher, mirroring the roughly 5% gap lower after the first round.