Saxo Bank of Denmark analyzed that Microsoft will release its Q1 FY2026 earnings after the US market closes on October 28th. In the past eight earnings releases, Microsoft's stock price has fallen five times and risen three times, with a median change of 6.1% and an average absolute change of 7%. The largest single fluctuation was a 15.5% increase after the July earnings report this year. However, the options market currently does not show a clear bias in terms of price direction. As of the US stock market close on October 23rd, Microsoft's stock price was approximately $524.50, with an implied volatility of approximately 5.3% for options expiring on October 30th covering the earnings release. Further comparing equivalent call and put spreads, the former costs approximately $9.65, while the latter costs approximately $9.47, indicating that the market's pricing for similar increases or decreases is largely similar. The growth rate of Microsoft's Azure cloud business will also be a key focus of the earnings report: the growth rate in the previous quarter was 43%, and the company previously guided for approximately 45% growth this quarter at constant exchange rates.
