Stephen Jones at Aegon Asset Management said Wednesday’s UK budget is unlikely
to contain major surprises given limited fiscal headroom and political will. But
with recent market optimism and a rally in gilts, even a modest surprise could
spook markets ahead of Halloween. He warned the tail risk from extra borrowing
lies in fiscal mechanics: roughly £10bn of additional financing—potentially via
off‑balance‑sheet instruments—could likely be absorbed, but a £30–40bn rise in
Gilt issuance would be difficult for markets to take calmly.
