Refinitiv, citing traders, expects crude exports from Russia’s Baltic and Black
Sea ports to fall 100,000–200,000 bpd MoM in November. Traders attribute the
decline to refineries exiting maintenance and raising runs to increase diesel
output for a Russia‑US diesel supply agreement reached on Oct 9; Russia has
partly restored diesel export quotas and the US has eased fuel-export sanctions.
Risks remain: Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, roughly three-week
loading delays at Novorossiysk, and falling Russian crude production that may
limit further refinery throughput, leaving November export plans subject to
change.
