1. Standard Chartered Bank: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike. New Zealand's current inflation level is 3.7%, higher than the 1% to 3% inflation target, and there is still a significant chance of further rate hikes.
2. Capital Economics: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike to address upside risks to inflation. The forecast for the final 25 basis point rate hike has been moved forward from March 2027 to December 2026.
3. TD Securities: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike due to a sharp deterioration in imported inflation and currency depreciation. The forecast for two 25 basis point rate hikes, one in December and one in February next year, has been maintained, and the terminal interest rate forecast has been revised upward from 3.25% to 3.50%.
4. ANZ Bank: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike, with rates reaching 3.50% by March 2027. A weaker New Zealand dollar and rising oil prices have increased upside risks to inflation, but interest rates should not be pushed above the neutral interest rate range without sufficient evidence.
5. ASB Bank (New Zealand): Expects a 25 basis point rate hike and will maintain a bias towards further conditional tightening of monetary policy. Further 25 basis point hikes are expected in December and February 2027, bringing the final rate to 3.50%.
6. Bank of New Zealand: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike and signals the possibility of further rate increases. Inflationary pressures have risen significantly since September, and the economic and price environment has changed. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's peak interest rate is expected to be 3.75%.
7. Westpac Bank: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike due to significant upside risks to inflation in the near term and to leave room for further rate hikes. Further rate hikes are expected in December and February next year, bringing the rate to 3.5%.
8. ING Bank: Expects a 25 basis point rate hike and will release a hawkish policy statement. The next rate hike is expected to occur in February 2027, rather than December, while not ruling out further hikes later in 2027.
9. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Shadow Committee: Most members recommended a 25 basis point rate hike, citing rising fuel costs and a weaker New Zealand dollar as factors that could further fuel inflation. However, a few members favored allowing previous rate hikes more time to have an impact on the economy.
10. A Reuters poll: 22 out of 27 economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in October. 13 out of 23 economists expect the official cash rate to remain at 3.00% by the end of the year, but 9 expect it to rise to 3.25% in December.
