Markets expect the RBNZ to hike 25bps today, with most major banks flagging
further tightening risk as inflation and external pressures rise. Standard
Chartered cites inflation at 3.7% (above the 1–3% target) and sees significant
upside risk to rates. Capital Economics also expects a 25bp move and has pulled
forward its final 25bp hike from Mar 2027 to Dec 2026. TD Securities points to
sharply worse imported inflation and NZD weakness, keeps Dec and Feb 25bp hike
calls and raises its terminal OCR to 3.50% (from 3.25%). ANZ, ASB and Westpac
each forecast 25bp today plus additional 25bp moves in Dec and Feb, taking OCR
to about 3.50% by early 2027. BNZ expects 25bps now and a higher peak OCR of
3.75%.ING expects a 25bp move and a hawkish statement, but sees the next hike
more likely in Feb 2027 than Dec. The RBNZ shadow committee majority recommends
25bps on rising fuel costs and NZD weakness, though some members prefer to wait
for earlier hikes to feed through. A Reuters survey found 22 of 27 economists
expect a 25bp October hike; among 23 respondents, 13 expect the OCR to remain at
3.00% at year-end while nine expect it to rise to 3.25% in Dec.
