1. Potential Dissidents: Cleveland Fed President Hammark, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan all opposed maintaining interest rates at the July meeting, advocating for a 25 basis point hike. The final vote was 9-3.
2. Rabobank: Expects the Fed to maintain rates this time, but Hammark, Kashkari, and Logan may again vote against it, demanding an immediate rate hike. If this prediction comes true, the decision will repeat the 9-3 vote of July.
3. KPMG: Considers Logan a potential dissident to watch closely. She advocates for at least a 50 basis point increase, while Hammark and Kashkari have recently shown flexibility in the pace of policy adjustments, so they may not insist on a rate hike in October.
4. PIMCO: The September dot plot shows some officials' forecasts suggesting rate hikes at the remaining two meetings this year. Even if these officials vote against it in October, it doesn't necessarily mean they advocate for a more aggressive and longer rate hike cycle.
5. StoneX: If the rate remains unchanged this time with no dissenting votes, it could weaken market confidence in a December rate hike; one dissenting vote would mean a pause in the moderate hawkish stance; two or more dissenting votes are more likely to be interpreted as temporarily skipping October and reserving room for a December rate hike.
6. Mitsubishi UFJ: It is expected that in its most probable scenario of a "hawkish pause," there could be up to three dissenting voices supporting an immediate rate hike. Voting differences are expected to be a direct indicator of the FOMC's internal tightening inclinations.
