1. Goldman Sachs: The key focus of the October Fed meeting is how the FOMC will revise its wording regarding the September rate hike in the statement. We expect it may draw on Jefferson's recent wording, adjusting it to: Any further adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate to support achieving the 2% inflation target more promptly will depend on data trends, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
2. Morgan Stanley: A unanimous vote in favor of a rate hike, a policy statement mentioning financial stability concerns, or a moderate assessment of inflation will be seen as a dovish signal by the market; conversely, three or more hawkish votes against a rate hike, clear guidance on further tightening, or heightened concerns about inflation and the spillover effects of energy prices will constitute a significant hawkish signal.
3. ING: This policy statement and Warsh's press conference will be relatively brief.
The core message is likely: the US economy remains in relatively good shape, with low unemployment, but inflation remains above target; future policy will depend on future data trends, and the Fed currently believes the fight against inflation is not yet complete. 4. TD Securities: Fed Chairman Warsh is unlikely to provide explicit forward guidance, maintaining his new "data-dependent" creed. However, to alleviate market doubts about his commitment to combating inflation,
he is highly likely to release hawkish inflation signals in his statement or speech, thereby guiding the market to price in further tightening.
5. Bank of America: If there is a rate hike in October, the policy statement is not expected to change substantially; if rates remain unchanged, the wording regarding a timely return to the 2% inflation target will need to be adjusted.
6. Analyst Matthew Ryan: Given Chairman Warsh's strong aversion to forward guidance, the statement will likely be brief and restrained, reiterating the underlying theme of "economic resilience + high inflation."
Any clues about future rate hikes will be deeply embedded in the "data-dependent" wording; the Fed tends to avoid explicit statements, leaving the pricing power of the next step to the market.
7. Monex Europe Analyst: Since holding rates steady is almost fully priced in, the foreign exchange market's reaction will depend on the tone of the Fed's statement.
The Fed may retain the possibility of a December rate hike, but will not provide formal guidance.
