CBOT Agricultural Commodities Evening Analysis: Sudden Rainfall in the Midwest May Hinder the Autumn Harvest and Cause Quality Issues; Official Yield Data Revisions Further Fuel Market Skepticism! After a Sharp Drop, Oversold Signals Emerge Frequentl

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: Businesses are facing rising cost pressures.

1. Economic Forecast: The 2027 economic growth forecast has been lowered from 1.6% to 1%, citing the "economic storm" looming globally due to Trump's war with Iran. Fiscal policy space is projected at £15 billion, with annual government borrowing expected to be higher throughout the forecast period compared to the March forecast. 2. Household Energy Subsidies: A £100 energy subsidy will be provided to 20 million households, estimated at £2.6 billion; the VAT exemption on household electricity bills will be extended to July next year, lowering the price cap by £50; a fixed basic charge on household gas bills will be eliminated, and similar reforms are planned for other sectors. 3. Tax Adjustments: ① Increased Bank Surcharge – From January next year, the bank surcharge rate will be temporarily increased from 3% to 6% for 15 months. ② Reduced Tax Burden for Small Businesses – The threshold for small business tax exemptions in the retail, hospitality, and leisure sectors will be raised, eliminating the need for 70,000 businesses to pay business tax. ③ Increase gambling tax – Raise the tax rate on gaming machines from 20% to 25%, and exclude gaming centers and e-cigarette shops from the business tax relief to compensate for the revenue loss caused by the aforementioned tax cuts. ④ Adjust capital gains taxes – Increase the tax rate on property income and savings income by 2 percentage points. ⑤ Reduce corporate asset disposal relief. ⑥ Establish new tax exemptions for retirees, ensuring that national pensions are not taxed. ⑦ Maintain the maximum limit for Cash ISAs at £20,000. ⑧ Extend tax relief for drivers until July next year. ⑨ Suspend tariffs on more than 100 supermarket goods. 4. Defense Budget: Plans are in place to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2030; the relevant funding arrangements will be announced during the expenditure review. An additional £10 billion in economic and military support will be provided to Ukraine, in the form of loans, export financing guarantees, and emergency funds to address winter needs. The defense investment program will receive full funding. 5. Investment Budget: £20.4 billion will be provided to the UK National Wealth Fund; a new UK Data Centre Convention is planned, requiring data centre investments to be local communities; new subsidies will be established for young entrepreneurs; the skilled worker visa system and non-compete clauses are planned to be reformed; capital gains tax relief will be provided for entrepreneurs; an additional £1.5 billion will be allocated for social and affordable housing construction; and the lifelong tax-free savings account will be replaced with a first-home buyer tax-free savings account. 6. Decentralization: 100% of business tax revenue will remain at the local level by the end of this decade; from next year, 20% of business tax revenue will be allocated to mayors, and from 2028, mayors will be given the power to levy a tourist tax. 7. Welfare Spending Cuts: A commitment to reduce total welfare spending is made; a response to the Milburn Report is planned for this year, with a white paper and related legislation to be published next year.