Resolution Statement
1. The market widely expects the Fed to press the "pause button" on rate hikes. If it does choose to raise rates, it would be another rare pre-election policy move.
2. Whether the vote is unanimous (last time it was 12-0). This meeting may see 2-3 dissenting votes on a rate hike, with Logan and Hamack being the most likely to support it.
3. The policy statement is expected to remain brief and restrained, emphasizing data dependence.
4. A policy statement focusing on financial stability may be seen as dovish; if concerns about inflation and energy price spillovers intensify, it may be seen as hawkish.
5. Whether the wording of the statement will be adjusted. If it retains the phrase "returning to the target in a timely manner" or further emphasizes "acting as necessary," it suggests that there is still room for tightening.
Wash's Press Conference
1. Warsh's press conference is expected to continue its concise and pragmatic style, without providing clear forward guidance, and the tone may lean towards objectively stating the current situation.
2. Inflation data has been higher than expected for two consecutive months. Will Warsh reiterate that inflation is too high and that it needs to be brought back to 2% at a "faster pace"? 3. How will Warsh explain the decision to hold rates steady in October while maintaining flexibility for policy action in December?
4. The time Warsh allocates between discussing inflation and financial conditions may influence market interpretation.
5. Warsh may be asked to explain what the high and recent decline in US Treasury yields signals.
6. Warsh may be asked to interpret the stock market sell-off triggered by artificial intelligence and how to deal with potential bubbles.
7. Warsh may be asked how the shifting power in Congress after the midterm elections will affect the Fed's decisions.
8. Sharing the latest progress on the Fed's working group reform.
9. The financial security risks posed by uncontrolled artificial intelligence.
