RBC Capital Markets says intensive diplomatic activity ahead of the U.S.
midterms has not eliminated the risk that the U.S. could resume military strikes
on Iran. Analysts led by Helima Croft say there has been no pre-election
de‑escalation; both sides remain entrenched and the near‑term trend favors U.S.
military escalation. Key questions are whether any new action would be a final
strike before withdrawal or a broader campaign to complete objectives and assist
regime change; a broader U.S. campaign would increase the risk of more
destructive Iranian retaliation. After the midterms, even if Congress cannot
force a halt to operations, Democrats winning control of one or both chambers
could use appropriations to restrict war funding.
