Major banks expect the ECB to hold the deposit rate at 2.50% today while keeping
December tightening on the table. Wells Fargo sees a hold and says the meeting
will test whether the ECB signals that tighter financing conditions warrant
patience while preserving optionality; its base case remains a December hike.
Mitsubishi UFJ expects a hold now but keeps a 50bp December hike as its
baseline. Danske Bank expects a hold and a final 25bp December hike to a 2.75%
peak, to be maintained through 2027; it notes market interest in whether Lagarde
will announce an early exit. Morgan Stanley expects a hold, expects policymakers
to request more data, and says the ECB will flag close monitoring of sovereign
yields without yet needing policy action. Rabobank sees no evidence
energy-driven inflation is spreading to wages/prices and says the ECB can wait
until December. Nordea forecasts a hold, with a baseline of +25bp in December
and +25bp in March 2027 taking the deposit rate to 3.00%, and highlights
markets’ focus on French bond sell-offs and tighter financing conditions. SEB’s
baseline is a 25bp December hike and a possible further 25bp in March, viewing
October as a mid-cycle check between September and December forecasts. Brown
Brothers Harriman expects a hold but says resilient activity and inflation
staying above target keeps a December move to 2.75% firmly in play.
