Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke says in a report that if the ECB holds rates
and caution signals on further tightening, the euro could weaken further. Given
France’s fiscal strain, the ECB may avoid a strong tightening signal; "markets
still see scope for one more ECB hike by mid‑next year and possibly two by
end‑2027." Praefcke adds that a cautious ECB and downward repricing of rate
expectations could push EUR/USD toward $1.10.
