1. Investment banks are largely in agreement: the interest rate will remain at 1.25% in October, with no consecutive rate hikes. 2. Investment banks are divided: will the next rate hike occur in December 2026 or January 2027? 3. Has core inflation

Bernstein raised its price target for Microsoft (MSFT.O) from $662 to $722.

1. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) states that El Niño continues to strengthen and is expected to peak within one to two months. All forecasting models, including the BOM model, indicate that warming in the tropical Pacific will peak around November or December and remain above the El Niño threshold until autumn 2027. 2. Vale of Brazil released its Q3 2026 production and sales report. The report shows that total iron ore production in Q3 2026 was 88.35 million tons, up 5% quarter-on-quarter and down 6% year-on-year; total iron ore sales were 86.29 million tons, up 8% quarter-on-quarter and flat year-on-year. 3. Malaysian Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Noraini Ahmad said on Thursday that the Ministry of Finance is considering a proposal to temporarily suspend export taxes on crude palm oil. As the world's second-largest palm oil producer, Malaysia currently has record-high crude palm oil stocks. 4. According to an announcement from the National Grain Trade Center, entrusted by China Grain Reserves Oils & Fats Co., Ltd., an auction for imported soybeans will be held at 13:30 on November 3, 2026. The planned auction will sell 402,000 tons of imported soybeans. 5. A regulation issued by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade on Thursday shows that Indonesia has set the November reference price for crude palm oil at US$978.90 per ton. The new reference price will reduce the export tax on crude palm oil next month from US$178 per ton to US$124 per ton. Indonesia also levies an additional 12.5% export tax on crude palm oil. 6. The Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued a notice on further improving the level of trade liberalization and facilitation in the Hainan Free Trade Port. The notice mentions that after the listing of liquefied natural gas (LNG) futures, support will be given to the Hainan Free Trade Port to carry out LNG futures delivery warehouse related businesses, and energy metering will be allowed for LNG futures bonded delivery business. 7. According to SMM, recent market rumors suggested that some Indonesian hydrometallurgical companies might jointly reduce MHP production by 50%, which briefly drove a significant rebound in nickel prices. However, as of now, there has been no official announcement regarding the benchmark level of the production cut (based on existing output or nominal capacity) or its duration, and the actual implementation remains to be seen.