ANZ strategists Daniel Hines and Sony Kumari say the oil supply-demand balance
is now more fragile than at the start of the Middle East conflict; any
escalation after the US midterms would lift prices. Assuming no further
escalation, ANZ raises its Brent year‑end forecast to $105/bbl from $95, citing
persistent delivery constraints rather than an anticipated new geopolitical
shock. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have largely resumed, but transport
efficiency is about 60% of pre‑conflict levels, keeping deliveries tight and
making inventory rebuilds difficult. Strategic petroleum reserves have been
drawn down and potential demand may be stronger than expected; global idle crude
stocks cover roughly 41 days, down from about 45 days earlier this year. If
supply improves, some demand suppressed by shortages, high freight rates and
trade/refining bottlenecks could be released.
