In Asian trade Friday, USD/CAD fell for a third straight session, trading near
1.3970. Progress in Middle East diplomacy has eased oil-market stress—normally a
negative for commodity-linked CAD—but weakening safe-haven demand and softer
Fed-hike expectations have kept the dollar on the back foot. Traders now price
roughly a 75% chance of a 25bp Fed move in December, down from 84.2% a day
earlier. Offsetting that, recent US data showed resilience: preliminary GDP YoY
3.4% (consensus 3.2%; Q2 2.2%) and core PCE YoY 3.1% in line with expectations,
supporting the case for further Fed tightening.