A survey of 19 economists found all expect the RBNZ to raise the official cash
rate (OCR) by 25bp to 3.00% at the Dec. 9 meeting. Of 17 analysts asked about
the subsequent move, 11 expect a further 25bp increase to 3.25% in next
February, while six expect a hold. Economists differ on the OCR level in 2027:
two expect it to remain at or below 3%, seven expect 3.25%, and expect eight the
OCR to reach 3.5% or higher by the end of next year. The poll was conducted
after the RBNZ unexpectedly left rates unchanged this week; swaps price roughly
a 75% probability of a December hike.
