A Monday report, Ukraine Economic Insights, says intensified Russian air,
missile and drone strikes have further damaged Ukraine’s economy and are
increasing reliance on foreign aid. The report warns Ukraine is unlikely to
collapse immediately but sustaining the war through 2027 will increasingly
depend on timely, reliable and sufficient Western funding. Russian forces have
shifted strikes toward commercial infrastructure, targeting energy facilities
and civilian transport networks; the report says this tactic is expected to push
Ukraine into recession this year. The National Bank of Ukraine cut its last week
2026 GDP forecast to a 0.4% contraction from a prior 1.8% expansion — the first
wartime GDP decline since the more-than-30% collapse in 2022.
