1. Historical Benchmark Frequency: In the 20 midterm elections since 1946, the US president's party has lost House seats 18 times, an average loss of about 26 seats.
2. Only Two Exceptions: In 1998 and 2002, the US president's party actually gained House seats. At that time, the president's approval rating was 65% and 67%, respectively.
3. The Impact of Presidential Approval Rating: A 2022 NPR survey showed that when a president's approval rating falls below 50%, their party loses an average of about 43 House seats. (Note: An Emerson poll showed Trump's approval rating at only 37%).
4. Historical Patterns Don't Determine Everything: History is a guide, but not a rule. The cases of 1998 and 2002 show that a president's party does not necessarily lose seats in midterm elections; the specific outcome still depends on the political environment and district competition that year.
Note: The following chart shows the changes in the number of seats held by the president's party in the House and Senate in recent midterm elections. "R" represents "Republican" and "D" represents "Democratic".
